I know the data is only early, and there may be a few compounding factors. But what I’ve looked at here is the Australian figures for six months from today (11 July 2022) versus hospitalisations.

In very simple and crude terms, I’ve overlaid the two graphs, with a 2 week shift in time (to account for the delay between infection and hospitalisation).

So what concerns me is the divergence that we are seeing in hospitalisations in the last 1-2 months. Basically, we are seeing about twice as many people in hospital now for a given caseload as we were six months ago, or even two months ago.